Z221: Intelligence Analytics

Learning Outcomes

  • Demonstrate the use of four structured analytic techniques
  • Team worked through disagreements and final product shows cohesiveness and thoroughness
  • Student identifies most important ill-defined aspects of problem as well as general ill-defined problem nature
  • Student is keenly aware of personal perspective and biases and compensates effectively
  • Student demonstrates awareness of relationship between present problem and context in which it is situated
  • Student uses goal, mission or other ultimates to structure problem space effectively
  • Student systematically works through problem; often makes multiple passes through the problem space as conditions change in order to assesses consequences of changes or alternatives
  • Student uses unsuccessful attempts regularly to better understand problem and solution process
  • Student generates rich variety of alternatives; tests them objectively and selects rationally
  • Student uses general principles and fundamental concepts to frame overall problem space and as solution tools; provides reasonable and substantive justification for assumptions and choices
  • Student demonstrates appropriate level of confidence and commitment to eventual solution

Required Books

Sarah M. Beebe (Editor), Randolph H. Pherson. Cases in Intelligence Analysis: Structured Analytic Techniques in Action. Los Angeles: CQPress, 2014. ISBN-13: 978-1483340166

Assignments

  • TEAMS: All assignments except the first one are done in teams of three.
  • DON’T GET COMFORTABLE: Teams will be reassigned for each assignment.
  • ONE GRADE PER TEAM: Your team will submit one assignment representing the work of all three students.
  • TURN ASSIGNMENTS IN ON TIME: There are 10 assignments, your team, and you, cannot afford late assignments.
  • DO NOT ERASE, CROSS OUT: The process and progress of your teams thinking must be laid out. What ideas did you adopt? What ideas did you abandon?

Date

Points

Assignments

Feb 8

10

Tarin Kowt write-up due

Feb 15

10

Bhutto Assassination write-up due

Feb 22

10

Ukraine write-up due

Feb 29

10

Belgrade write-up due

Mar 7

10

Moskalenko write-up

Mar 21

10

Revolutionary Organization 17 write-up

Mar 28

10

Iranian Meddling write-up due

Apr 4

10

Mumbai Terrorists write-up due

Apr 11

10

FARC write-up due

Apr 18

10

Radio Marti write-up due

 

100

Total points

Schedule of Readings

Date

Subject

Required Readings

Jan 11

Introduction

Introduction to the class

Jan 13

Cognitive bias

George Dvorsky. “The 12 cognitive biases that prevent you from being rational.” io9, 9 Jan 2013

Jan 18

Martin Luther King Holiday

No Readings

Jan 20

Cognitive bias

Richards J. Heuer, Jr. "Nosenko: Five Paths to Judgment," Studies in Intelligence 31, no. 3 (Fall, 1987): 71-101

Jan 25

Analysis exercise

The Kingdom. Universal Pictures. 2008

Jan 27

Analysis exercise

The Kingdom

Feb 1

The Road to Tarin Kowt

Beebe & Pherson. Chapter 6

Feb 3

The Road to Tarin Kowt

Analysis and write-up

Feb 8

The Assassination of Benazir Bhutto

Beebe & Pherson. Chapter 8

Feb 10

The Assassination of Benazir Bhutto

Analysis and write-up

Feb 15

Shades of Orange in Ukraine

Beebe & Pherson. Chapter 16

Feb 17

Shades of Orange in Ukraine

Analysis and write-up

Feb 22

Violence Erupts in Belgrade

Beebe & Pherson. Chapter 17

Feb 24

Violence Erupts in Belgrade

Analysis and write-up

Feb 29

Who Poisoned Karinna Moskalenko?

Beebe & Pherson. Chapter 1

Mar 2

Who Poisoned Karinna Moskalenko?

Analysis and write-up

Mar 7

Understanding Revolutionary Organization 17 November

Beebe & Pherson. Chapter 13

Mar 9

Understanding Revolutionary Organization 17 November

Analysis and write-up

Mar 14

Spring Break

No assignments or readings

Mar 16

Spring Break

No assignments or readings

Mar 21

Iranian Meddling in Bahrain

Beebe & Pherson. Chapter 15

Mar 23

Iranian Meddling in Bahrain

Analysis and write-up

Mar 28

Defending Mumbai from Terrorist Attack

Beebe & Pherson. Chapter 14

Mar 30

Defending Mumbai from Terrorist Attack

Analysis and write-up

Apr 4

Colombia’s FARC Attacks to Homeland

Beebe & Pherson. Chapter 12

Apr 6

Colombia’s FARC Attacks to Homeland

Write-up and analysis

Apr 11

Jousting with Cuba over Radio Marti

Beebe & Pherson. Chapter 5

Apr 13

Jousting with Cuba over Radio Marti

Write-up and analysis

Apr 18

 

Contingency time

Apr 20

 

Contingency time

Apr 25

 

Contingency time

Apr 27

 

Contingency time

May 2-6

FINALS WEEK

No final exam